article

Climate Change Impact on Kenyan Agriculture

10 min read

Introduction

Climate change is one of the biggest threats facing Kenyan agriculture today. Unpredictable rainfall, longer droughts, changing seasons, and extreme weather events are making farming increasingly difficult. For a country where agriculture employs about 40% of the population and contributes significantly to GDP, climate change impacts everyone - from smallholder farmers to consumers facing rising food prices.

This guide explains how climate change is affecting Kenyan agriculture, what the impacts mean for different farming communities, and practical steps farmers can take to adapt and build resilience.

Understanding Climate Change in Kenya

What’s Happening

Temperature Changes:

  • Average temperatures rising
  • More hot days and heat waves
  • Warmer nights affecting crop growth
  • Increased evaporation rates

Rainfall Changes:

  • Unpredictable rain patterns
  • Longer dry spells
  • When rains come, often too heavy
  • Traditional seasons no longer reliable
  • Some areas getting less rain overall
  • Flash floods in some regions

Extreme Weather Events:

  • More frequent and severe droughts
  • Unexpected flooding
  • Stronger winds
  • Hail storms in unusual areas
  • Locust invasions (linked to climate patterns)

Why It’s Happening

Global Causes:

  • Greenhouse gas emissions worldwide
  • Deforestation
  • Industrial activities
  • Burning fossil fuels

Local Contributors:

  • Deforestation in Kenya
  • Wetland destruction
  • Poor land management
  • Urban expansion
  • Pollution

Impacts on Different Types of Farming

Rain-Fed Agriculture

Most Affected: About 98% of Kenya’s agriculture is rain-fed.

Problems Faced:

Planting Time Uncertainty

  • Traditional planting calendars no longer work
  • Farmers plant, then rains fail
  • Seeds wasted, money lost
  • Too late to replant

Crop Failure

  • Insufficient rain during growing season
  • Crops wither before maturity
  • Reduced yields even when crops survive
  • Total loss common in bad years

Pest and Disease Changes

  • New pests appearing in areas
  • Old pests active at different times
  • Diseases spreading to new regions
  • Fall armyworm linked to climate changes

Regions Most Affected:

  • Eastern Kenya (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui)
  • Northern Kenya (Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana)
  • Parts of Coast (Kilifi, Kwale)
  • Some Rift Valley areas

Irrigated Agriculture

Less Vulnerable but Still Affected:

Water Source Problems:

  • Rivers running low or dry
  • Boreholes failing as water tables drop
  • Dams not filling adequately
  • Competition for water increasing

Higher Costs:

  • More irrigation needed
  • Fuel costs for pumping
  • Need for water storage
  • Investment in efficient systems

New Challenges:

  • Heat stress on crops even with water
  • Pests and diseases still an issue
  • Soil degradation faster

Where It Matters:

  • Tana River irrigation schemes
  • Perkerra Irrigation Scheme
  • Central Kenya irrigators
  • Taveta and other water-dependent areas

Livestock Farming

Pastoralist Communities Severely Hit:

Drought Effects:

  • Pasture drying up faster
  • Water sources disappearing
  • Animals dying in large numbers
  • Milk production dropping
  • Livestock market prices crashing (many selling at once)

Migration and Conflict:

  • Longer distances to find pasture and water
  • Entering new areas causes conflicts
  • Traditional grazing patterns disrupted
  • Overgrazing in remaining areas

Disease:

  • Weakened animals more susceptible
  • Disease outbreaks during droughts
  • Lack of resources for treatment

Most Affected Counties:

  • Baringo, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit
  • Parts of Laikipia, Kajiado, Narok
  • Wajir, Mandera, Garissa

Horticulture (Vegetables and Fruits)

High-Value but Vulnerable:

Temperature Sensitivity:

  • Many vegetables and fruits have narrow temperature ranges
  • Too hot: poor quality, reduced yields
  • Heat stress on plants
  • Pollination problems

Water Requirements:

  • High water needs
  • Irrigation essential but water scarce
  • Quality affected by water stress

Market Challenges:

  • Inconsistent supply due to climate
  • Quality varies with weather
  • Export standards harder to meet
  • Post-harvest losses increase in heat

Opportunities:

  • Can adapt faster with right support
  • Greenhouse farming possible
  • Higher value justifies investment in adaptation

Tea and Coffee

Key Export Crops at Risk:

Tea Farming:

  • Needs specific rainfall and temperature
  • Drought reduces yields significantly
  • Too much rain causes waterlogging
  • Pests and diseases changing

Impact: Tea production fluctuates, affecting farmers’ income and export earnings.

Coffee Farming:

  • Flower timing disrupted by weather
  • Berries affected by temperature extremes
  • Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) spreading to new areas
  • Yields declining in some traditional areas

Impact: Coffee farmers facing low yields and declining quality.

Regions Affected:

  • Tea: Kericho, Bomet, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga
  • Coffee: Central Kenya, parts of Eastern and Rift Valley

Dairy Farming

Feed and Heat Stress:

Challenges:

  • Pasture quality declining
  • Need more purchased feed (expensive)
  • Cows produce less milk in extreme heat
  • Water requirements increasing
  • Heat stress affects breeding

Costs Rising:

  • More feed needed
  • Veterinary care
  • Cooling measures
  • Water provision

Where It Matters:

  • Central Kenya dairy zones
  • Rift Valley dairy areas
  • Parts of Western Kenya

Specific Climate Impacts by Region

Central Kenya

Traditional Breadbasket Affected:

  • More erratic rainfall
  • Longer dry spells between rains
  • Flash floods damaging farms
  • Coffee and tea yields variable

Crops Affected: Maize, beans, coffee, tea, vegetables, potatoes

Eastern Kenya

Increasingly Arid:

  • Droughts more frequent and longer
  • Rainfall decreasing overall
  • Desertification concerns
  • Water scarcity severe

Crops Affected: Maize, beans, cowpeas, green grams, millet, sorghum

Livestock: Cattle, goats, sheep struggling

Western Kenya

Changing Patterns:

  • Rainfall timing shifted
  • Some areas seeing floods
  • Sugarcane affected by droughts
  • Maize production variable

Crops Affected: Maize, sugarcane, beans, cassava

Rift Valley

Diverse Impacts:

  • Pastoral areas (north) severe droughts
  • Agricultural areas (south) erratic rains
  • Lake levels affecting surrounding areas
  • Heat stress on livestock and crops

Crops and Livestock: Wheat, maize, dairy, sheep, goats, cattle

Coast Region

Unique Challenges:

  • Sea level rise affecting coastal agriculture
  • Saltwater intrusion into farms
  • Erratic rainfall
  • Flooding in some areas

Crops Affected: Coconuts, cashew nuts, mangoes, cassava, maize

Northern Kenya

Most Vulnerable:

  • Extreme droughts
  • Pastoralist livelihoods threatened
  • Humanitarian crises common
  • Displacement and conflict

Livestock: Camels, cattle, goats, sheep - backbone of livelihoods

Economic Impacts

For Farmers

Income Loss:

  • Reduced yields = less income
  • Crop failure = total loss
  • Livestock deaths = asset loss
  • Debt from loans for failed seasons

Increased Costs:

  • More expensive inputs
  • Irrigation costs
  • Pest and disease control
  • Alternative feed for livestock

Uncertainty:

  • Can’t plan reliably
  • Investment risky
  • Difficult to secure loans
  • Youth leaving farming

For Economy

National Level:

  • GDP affected (agriculture is major contributor)
  • Export earnings down (tea, coffee, horticulture)
  • Employment reduced
  • Rural-urban migration increases

Food Security:

  • Maize production variable (staple food)
  • Food prices rising
  • Import bills increasing
  • Vulnerable populations food insecure

Example: 2016-2017 drought cost Kenya’s economy an estimated KES 48 billion.

Adaptation Strategies for Farmers

1. Change Crop Varieties

Drought-Tolerant Crops:

Kenya Seed Company and Research Institutions Offer:

  • Drought-tolerant maize varieties (e.g., DH04, DH06, KDV1)
  • Available at Agrovets
  • Cost: KES 300-500 per 2kg
  • Mature with less water
  • Better yields in dry conditions

Traditional Crops Revival:

  • Sorghum and millet (very drought-tolerant)
  • Cassava (survives dry spells)
  • Sweet potatoes (more resilient)
  • Green grams and cowpeas

Why It Works:

  • Suited to local conditions
  • Nutritious
  • Market demand growing

Where to Get:

  • Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO)
  • Seed companies
  • County agriculture offices

2. Diversify Crops

Don’t Put All Eggs in One Basket:

Mix Crops:

  • Plant different crops
  • Some will survive even if others fail
  • Different maturity periods
  • Intercropping (e.g., maize with beans)

Benefits:

  • Reduce risk
  • Better soil health
  • Some income even in bad years

3. Soil and Water Conservation

Protect What You Have:

Soil Conservation:

  • Terracing on slopes
  • Contour farming
  • Mulching to retain moisture
  • Planting cover crops
  • Agroforestry (trees on farms)

Water Harvesting:

  • Zai pits (small planting pits that capture water)
  • Half-moons and other structures
  • Farm ponds
  • Roof water harvesting for kitchen gardens

Benefits:

  • Soil retains more water
  • Erosion reduced
  • Better yields even with less rain

Support Available:

  • County governments sometimes support terracing
  • National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) programs
  • Some NGOs provide training

4. Improve Water Management

Every Drop Counts:

For Those with Some Water:

Drip Irrigation:

  • Uses much less water than flooding
  • Initial cost: KES 15,000-50,000 per acre (depending on system)
  • Saves up to 70% water
  • Better yields

Where to Get:

  • Davis & Shirtliff
  • Amiran Kenya
  • Local irrigation suppliers
  • Some County governments subsidize

Water Storage:

  • Tanks and ponds
  • Capture rain when it comes
  • Use during dry periods

5. Change Planting Times

Follow the Rain:

Use Weather Forecasts:

  • Kenya Meteorological Department provides seasonal forecasts
  • Website: www.meteo.go.ke
  • Radio and TV forecasts
  • SMS services (some counties)

Flexible Planting:

  • Don’t stick rigidly to traditional dates
  • Plant when forecast shows rain coming
  • Have seeds ready
  • Consider split planting (not all at once)

6. Integrated Pest Management

Climate-Smart Pest Control:

New Pests Need New Approaches:

  • Monitor fields regularly
  • Use resistant varieties
  • Biological control when possible
  • Pesticides as last resort
  • Follow extension advice

Fall Armyworm Example:

  • Use early detection
  • Push-pull technology (companion planting)
  • Biopesticides available
  • County agriculture officers can advise

7. Livestock Management

For Pastoralists and Farmers:

Herd Management:

  • Reduce herd size to match available resources
  • Improve breeds (fewer but more productive)
  • Destocking before drought severe (sell early)
  • Diversify livestock (goats more drought-tolerant than cattle)

Feed and Water:

  • Grow fodder crops (hay)
  • Store feed for dry season
  • Invest in water storage
  • Rotational grazing

Support Programs:

  • Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP)
    • Insures against drought-related livestock deaths
    • Available in 26 ASAL counties
    • Subsidized premiums
    • Contact county livestock office

8. Agroforestry

Trees on Farms:

Benefits:

  • Shade reduces heat stress
  • Improves soil
  • Windbreaks protect crops
  • Alternative income (fruits, timber)
  • Carbon sequestration

What to Plant:

  • Fruit trees (mangoes, avocados)
  • Legume trees (improve soil nitrogen)
  • Fodder trees (animal feed)
  • Indigenous trees

Where to Get Seedlings:

  • Kenya Forest Service
  • KALRO
  • County governments
  • Community nurseries
  • Some free during planting seasons

9. Access Climate Information

Know What’s Coming:

Kenya Meteorological Department:

  • Seasonal forecasts (3-month outlook)
  • Weather warnings
  • Website and social media

County Agriculture Offices:

  • Localized advisories
  • Extension services
  • Farming calendars updated for climate

Digital Platforms:

  • iCow, Digifarm (SMS-based farm advice)
  • Some provide weather info
  • Crop and livestock management tips

10. Join Farmer Groups

Strength in Numbers:

Benefits:

  • Share knowledge and experiences
  • Bulk buying of inputs (cheaper)
  • Access to training
  • Easier to get support from government/NGOs
  • Collective marketing

Where to Find:

  • County agriculture offices maintain lists
  • Self-help groups in communities
  • Savings and credit co-operatives (SACCOs)

Government and Institutional Support

National Drought Management Authority (NDMA)

Mandate: Coordinate drought management and build resilience in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL).

Services:

  • Early warning systems
  • Emergency response coordination
  • Resilience building programs
  • Cash transfers during droughts

How to Benefit:

  • Contact county NDMA office
  • Register for programs
  • Participate in community planning

Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Project (KCSAP)

Funded by: World Bank

What It Does:

  • Promotes climate-smart farming
  • Supports farmer groups
  • Provides matching grants for investments
  • Technology demonstration
  • Capacity building

Counties Covered: 24 counties (mainly ASAL and vulnerable areas)

How to Benefit:

  • Form or join farmer group
  • Register with county KCSAP office
  • Apply for support
  • Attend training

More Info: Contact county agriculture office

Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO)

Services:

  • Research on climate-resilient crops and livestock
  • Extension services
  • Technology dissemination
  • Farmer training

How to Access:

  • Visit KALRO centers near you
  • Attend field days and demonstrations
  • Request extension officer visit
  • Purchase improved seeds and breeds

Website: www.kalro.org

County Governments

Agriculture Department:

  • Extension services (advice)
  • Subsidized inputs sometimes
  • Training and demonstrations
  • Support for farmer groups

Climate Change Directorate (some counties):

  • Climate adaptation programs
  • Tree planting initiatives
  • Environmental conservation

How to Access:

  • Visit county agriculture office
  • Ward agriculture extension officers
  • Attend barazas and meetings

Financial Support

Agriculture Finance Corporation (AFC)

Loans For:

  • Farm inputs
  • Irrigation equipment
  • Livestock purchase
  • Farm development

Requirements:

  • Collateral (land title or guarantors)
  • Project proposal
  • Interest rates variable

Offices: Across Kenya Website: www.agrifinance.org

Kenya Women Finance Trust (KWFT)

Women Farmers:

  • Smaller loans (KES 10,000-100,000)
  • Group lending (easier to access)
  • Training included

Insurance

Agriculture Insurance Products:

  • Crop insurance (some companies)
  • Livestock insurance (KLIP and private)
  • Index-based (pays out based on weather data, not farm inspection)

Benefits:

  • Protects against total loss
  • Easier to get loans if insured
  • Peace of mind

Challenge: Premiums can be high for individual smallholders

Where: Check with major insurance companies (APA, Jubilee, CIC, Britam)

Community and NGO Support

NGOs Working on Climate Adaptation

International:

  • World Food Programme (food security)
  • FAO Kenya (agriculture)
  • CARE Kenya
  • Oxfam

Local:

  • Kenya Red Cross
  • Various community-based organizations

What They Offer:

  • Training
  • Inputs (seeds, tools)
  • Water infrastructure
  • Livelihood programs

How to Connect:

  • Through county offices
  • Community leaders
  • Directly to NGO field offices

Long-Term Outlook

What Science Says

Future Projections for Kenya:

  • Temperatures will continue rising
  • Rainfall will remain unpredictable
  • Extreme events more common
  • Some areas may get wetter, others drier
  • Growing seasons may shift

The Need for Transformation

Beyond Adaptation:

  • May need to change what crops we grow
  • Where we farm may change
  • Some areas may become non-viable for certain agriculture
  • Need major investments in water infrastructure
  • Policy changes required

Opportunities

Not All Doom:

  • New crops and varieties emerging
  • Technology improving
  • Renewable energy for farming
  • Carbon markets (farmers can earn from conservation)
  • Growing awareness and support

Conclusion

Climate change is fundamentally altering Kenyan agriculture, affecting livelihoods, food security, and the national economy. Unpredictable rains, droughts, floods, and changing seasons are the new normal. Every farmer must adapt to survive and thrive.

Adaptation is possible. Drought-tolerant crops, soil and water conservation, better livestock management, and access to climate information can help farmers cope. Government programs, research institutions, and NGOs offer support, though more is needed.

For Kenya to feed its growing population and maintain agricultural exports, investment in climate adaptation must increase. Farmers need accessible support, better infrastructure, affordable technology, and climate-responsive policies. At the same time, every farmer can take steps now - changing varieties, conserving water, diversifying crops, and staying informed.

Climate change is here, but Kenyan farmers have always been resilient. With the right support and their own ingenuity, they can adapt and continue to be the backbone of our economy and food security.